Thursday, 3 June 2010

Where Next? It's a surreal world.

I predicted a while ago on my blog that the involvement of Turkey would be crucial, even wondering if they would send a warship - and some sources now say that they will next time. But Turkey is not going to go off and do one, its hysteria is carefully controlled. It has far more leverage staying involved with Israel, if only to show the west - the US and The EU, that it is not a mullah run hysteria factory (Yes I know that Iran isn't either, but image is everything).
I really believe that we have a chance to end the siege of Gaza in practical terms as a result of this action. Egypt has opened its borders, and although they'll close again, they will not close as tightly. If Turkey restricts itself to outrage only in the specific area, then it will succeed in getting Nato to require Israel to allow independent patrols of the Gaza coast to stop ships and inspect for weapons, but weaponless ships of all trade will be permitted.
I floated this possibility with some Hamas low rankers in Gaza when I was there, and they insisted that the right to have arms is essential for a nation state, and so would resist independent shipping controls - what do you all think? An Independent Nation needs all its rights for sure, and Free but regulated trade would probably see the UN become the effective government of Gaza. It would be very hard for Hamas to motivate resistance from a prosperous community, which is one reason why I think that this is the route that Obama will take. But giving trade rights will eventually lead to a withering of controls and a drift into statehood after some years,whatever government runs it, in my opinion. But that is only Gaza.

Far more worrying is the the plan to absorb only the West Bank into a single state. Inbuilt Arab Minority, no way to stop the expansion of settlements and the impoverishment of arabs, no land or marriage rights, and job discrimination - One state only works if Arabs have a reasonable shot in a secular state of influencing the democratic process: Freedom is meaningless without access to power! But the west might be attracted to a solution that incorporates the west bank into Israel and gets rid of Gaza to loose international control, which would include Egypt, of course. (Ideally the Israelis would like to give Gaza away to Egypt, but Egypt won't do that, because the radical Gaza tail would wag the Egyptian dog). Can Palestine ever be united again with Israel's main nuclear plant directly geographically inline between them, and Fatah and Hamas being separated by such a large distance politically?

Moshe Arens, former Defense Minister, and noted Israeli hawk, has endorsed a one-state solution for Israel/Palestine. It can be achieved in a matter of months. Israel should formally annex the West Bank and offer the Palestinians citizenship. As he puts it:

Adding another 1.5 million Muslims, the population of Judea and Samaria, to Israel's Muslim population would of course make the situation considerably more difficult. Would a 30-percent Muslim minority in Israel create a challenge that would be impossible for Israeli society to meet? That is a question that Israeli politicians, and all Israelis - Jews and Arabs alike - need to ponder.

Unlike the dire predictions heard so often, Israeli sovereignty over Judea and Samaria would not be the end of the State of Israel, nor would it mean the end of democratic governance in Israel. It would, however, pose a serious challenge to Israeli society. But that is equally true for the other options being suggested for dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This option of Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria merits serious consideration.

I'm glad that Britons are all safe, but why have they been sent to Turkey? Have you noticed that the media, and Israel, is making this entirely into a spat with Turkey? What about the appallingly weak British Reaction:

We need to maintain the pressure of international action, all forty countries. We have to let our government know that WE were involved, and we want them to care. There is no doubt that Israel would like to shunt all the anger through Turkey, and the propaganda has already started about the Turkish Islamic Relief Organisation IHH being a terrorist organisation. This talk must not be allowed to become the norm in the West.

Israel's strategy is clear - exploit the differences between the new Islamism in Turkish Society which sees IHH as a positive force for good, and the secular Old Guard, especially in the army, who see themselves defending Ataturk's legacy against religion, and are suspicious of Islamic institutions being successful. They will seek to promote civil war in Turkey, rather than accede to International sanctions, exactly as they have done in Lebanon, and of course, in Palestine itself.

If the Turks can be persuaded to fight amongst themselves, even just in the media, that will provide the route for the marginalisation of the current Government, and the excuse that the Zionist West wants to forget the whole thing. We will start hearing that Turkey is an undemocratic state etc.

The Foreign Secretary William Hague was very complimentary about Turkey in Parliament Yesterday, praising its mediation role with Iran and Syria, and almost criticising Israel for failing to make peace with Syria. There is no doubt that the anger at these deaths has made a deep and lasting change to the politics of Israel, and is all that is keeping natural zionists like Hague onside.

But when they are not being unutterably stupid, the Israeli Government will be attempting to explore the fault lines I've mentioned. We must keep our government up to speed with our anger, and onside with the Turks - its the best route for the Palestinians, I feel sure.

1 comment:

max said...

You mention a central, and universally overlooked point in the equation: defense.

Even if by some miracle, the vermin of Israel decided to relinquish their overt domination and permitted a Palestinian state in the whole of the West Bank and Gaza, it goes without saying that the precondition is that the Palestinian "state" be permitted absolutely no means of defense of any kind. No defense of their airspace. No defense of their homes, croplands, schools, hospitals.

As long as the Palestinians are defenseless, the Israelis will mercilessly prey on them.

I've grown very pessimistic. I see the chances of a viable single state as well as the two state solution as fundamentally unworkable. The only plausible route it seems to me is for the Palestinians on the one hand to make daily life in Israel untenable through constant unrelenting attack. This will drive many Israelis out and discourage the few remaining Jews idiotic enough to consider moving to Israel to think twice about their decision.

Palestinians will slowly gain the upper hand demographically and eventually replace Jewish leadership with Arab leadership. As long as the Jews are calling the shots, there will only be suffering and horror for the Palestinian people.